When US President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping, the war in Iran is expected to become another sensitive issue in an already complex relationship between Washington and Beijing.
US officials have urged China to take a bigger role in encouraging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, several analysts believe Beijing is unlikely to offer support without expecting something in return from the United States. One of the most likely areas of negotiation is Taiwan, a long-standing priority for China.
Although Iran may be discussed during the Trump-Xi meeting, experts say it is unlikely to dominate the summit. Christopher Heurlin, an associate professor of government and Asian studies at Bowdoin College, said Iran is not the central issue for either side.
According to Heurlin, Taiwan remains China’s main concern, while Trump is expected to focus on trade matters, including efforts to push Beijing to buy more American soybeans.
Hormuz Blockade Creates Pressure on China
China is one of the biggest buyers of oil from Iran and the wider Middle East. Because of that, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could create economic pressure for Beijing. The waterway is a key route for global energy shipments, and any prolonged closure could affect oil prices and supply stability.
Even so, China has so far avoided taking a strong public role in the crisis. Beijing has presented itself as a country that could help diplomatically, but it has not yet placed serious pressure on Tehran to end the conflict or reopen the strait.
China recently hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but analysts say Beijing appears to be waiting for the right moment before making a stronger move.
Trump Arrives Under Political Pressure
Analysts believe Trump is entering the meeting with Xi from a weaker position because of the ongoing Iran conflict. Inderjeet Parmar, a professor of international politics at City St George’s, University of London, said Trump needs Chinese support to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, China also has its own reasons to want the strait reopened, especially because of its energy needs. However, Beijing may use this situation as leverage in talks with Washington.
Before leaving for China, Trump said he did not need Xi’s help on Iran and claimed the conflict was “very much under control.” But rising petrol prices in the US, stalled diplomacy, and falling public approval have increased pressure on his administration.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also called on China to support international efforts to reopen the strait. He argued that China, as the top importer of Iranian oil, should use diplomacy to encourage Tehran to restore safe passage.
Beijing Prefers Diplomacy Over Military Pressure
China and the United States both want the Strait of Hormuz reopened, but their approaches are different. Washington has relied heavily on military pressure and threats, while Beijing has called for restraint, negotiation, and a political solution.
William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said Washington understands it may need Beijing’s influence to bring Iran back to talks. However, asking China directly for help could give Beijing more leverage in the wider US-China relationship.
Earlier this year, Xi proposed a four-point plan for Middle East peace and stability. The plan emphasized peaceful coexistence, respect for sovereignty, international law, and a balanced approach to development and security.
Although the plan was broad, it showed China’s preference for diplomacy and multilateral engagement rather than direct military action.
After meeting Iran’s foreign minister, China’s Foreign Ministry said a comprehensive ceasefire was urgently needed. Beijing also said it supported Iran’s sovereignty and security while encouraging a diplomatic solution.
At the same time, China called for the restoration of normal and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, showing that Beijing is trying to balance its ties with Tehran and its own energy interests.
Taiwan Remains the Bigger Issue
Despite the growing focus on Iran, Taiwan is still expected to be one of the most important issues for Beijing during the summit.
China considers Taiwan part of its territory, while the United States maintains a “one China policy” but continues to sell weapons and maintain trade ties with the island. A new $14bn arms package for Taiwan has already been approved by Congress, but Trump has not yet signed it.
Analysts believe China may ask Trump to oppose Taiwanese independence or delay the arms package in exchange for helping pressure Iran.
Heurlin said Beijing may see the Trump administration as more open to persuasion on Taiwan. For China, the Iran crisis could provide a chance to push Washington closer to Beijing’s position.
US-China Tensions Still Shape the Talks
The Iran crisis is only one part of the wider tension between the United States and China. Over the past two decades, Washington has increasingly viewed Beijing as its main global competitor.
The relationship has been strained by trade disputes, sanctions, China’s claims in the South China Sea, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Taiwan. Tensions worsened after former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, followed by the controversy over a Chinese balloon that entered US airspace.
Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump has placed less emphasis on great power competition than previous administrations. Still, tariffs, trade, Taiwan, and now Iran continue to create friction between the two countries.
China’s Help Is Unlikely to Be Free
China does have influence over Iran, especially through trade and energy ties. But experts say Beijing is unlikely to use that influence simply to help Washington.
If Xi agrees to pressure Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz, China may expect something valuable in return. That could include a softer US position on Taiwan, a delay in arms sales, or broader concessions in the US-China relationship.
For Trump, the summit may become a difficult balancing act. He needs progress on Iran and energy stability, but any concession to China could create political risks at home and raise concerns among US allies.
As the Trump-Xi meeting approaches, Iran may not be the main issue on the table, but it could become a powerful test of how far both leaders are willing to go in making strategic trade-offs.