Israel political leadership appears eager to resume military action against Iran, even as the United States steps back from threats of renewed bombing and continues to support a ceasefire deal.
The debate intensified after Shimon Riklin, a right-wing Israeli television host, appeared to reveal details of a possible future strike on Tehran. His comments included what he claimed was the location of a uranium storage site that could be targeted. Israeli lawmakers strongly criticised the remarks, prompting Riklin to later say he had only been speaking hypothetically.
US Support Remains a Key Limit
Despite strong support within Israel for restarting the conflict, analysts say Israel is unlikely to act without approval from Washington. That approval does not appear certain.
Reports of a tense call between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump suggested deep disagreement over Washington’s ceasefire push. The US is reportedly pressing for a truce with Iran, even if Israel remains unhappy with the terms.
For Netanyahu, this creates a difficult political and military situation. His government has already spent heavily on operations against Iran, but Tehran’s leadership remains in place. Meanwhile, Iran’s response, including pressure on regional states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has made the conflict far more costly for the wider world.
Ceasefire Creates Political Pressure for Netanyahu
The April 8 ceasefire, which was reached with limited Israeli involvement, has become a major political problem for Netanyahu. Critics inside Israel have used the truce to accuse him of failing to achieve a clear victory.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett have attacked Netanyahu over the ceasefire, arguing that it damaged Israel’s security position. Polling from the Israel Democracy Institute also showed that many Israelis believe ending the war too early was against the country’s security interests.
This public mood reflects a deeper issue in Israeli politics: Iran has long been presented as Israel’s main threat. Analysts say many Israelis have been conditioned to see confrontation with Tehran as unavoidable.
Netanyahu Searches for a Strategic Win
Netanyahu has survived several major political crises in the past, including corruption charges and heavy criticism after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
Now, analysts believe he may see renewed conflict with Iran as a chance to claim a major strategic victory before elections later this year.
Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas said Netanyahu may be motivated by three main factors: distancing himself from the failures of October 7, answering criticism that the war with Iran achieved little, and securing a victory he can use politically.
The problem is that the earlier conflict produced consequences Israel may not have fully expected. Iran’s seizure of the Strait of Hormuz shook global markets, while Tehran’s attacks on regional states increased fears of a wider war.
Israel’s War Plans Face Regional Risks
Some Israeli officials have made clear that they want to restart military pressure on Iran. Defence Minister Israel Katz previously said Israel would be ready to act once the US gave approval, using aggressive language to describe possible strikes.
However, not everyone agrees that extending the war is the best move. Some in Israel want to reduce losses and step back, while others, including Netanyahu and much of the political mainstream, appear to favour using US military support to weaken Iran further.
The challenge is that any renewed conflict could bring serious consequences. Iran has already shown it can disrupt energy routes and target regional interests. A wider war could place more pressure on the US, Israel, and global markets.
Washington Holds the Final Decision
Although Israeli political support for a renewed war remains strong, the country’s options are limited by its dependence on the United States.
Analysts say Netanyahu may want to push forward, but he cannot easily do so if Washington refuses to support another round of fighting. The US appears more cautious now, especially after Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz raised the economic and strategic cost of continued conflict.
For now, the ceasefire has placed Israel in a difficult position. Its leaders may want to restart the war, but the decision may ultimately depend less on Jerusalem and more on Washington.
A Fragile Pause With Uncertain Future
The current pause does not mean the conflict is over. Israeli officials remain under pressure from voters and political rivals, while Iran continues to be viewed as a major threat by much of the Israeli public.
Still, the limits are clear. Without US backing, Israel may have fewer options than its leaders suggest. As Washington pushes for a ceasefire and regional risks continue to rise, Netanyahu’s desire for another war may be harder to turn into action.