Oil prices showed little sign of easing after United States President Donald Trump announced that Washington would help guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that failed to convince markets the crisis was close to ending.
On Monday morning, Brent crude, the global benchmark, remained nearly unchanged, reflecting deep skepticism among traders about whether the US plan could meaningfully restore energy flows through one of the world’s most important shipping routes. Brent futures for July stood at $108.11 by 05:00 GMT, down only 0.06 percent.
Trump said on Sunday that the US would begin helping to free up ships trapped in the Gulf starting Monday under an operation he called Project Freedom. But he provided few practical details, leaving markets uncertain about what exactly the plan would involve and whether it could work in the current security environment.
The limited market reaction showed that traders are no longer moved easily by political announcements alone, especially when the military and logistical details remain unclear.
US Offers Support but Few Concrete Guarantees
Trump did not say whether the operation would include direct naval escorts, an idea that had already been dismissed earlier by officials in his administration, who said more preparation would be needed before such a step could be taken.
Later, US Central Command said it would support vessels trying to move through the strait, but it also avoided explicitly mentioning escorts. Instead, it said the effort would involve guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned systems and around 15,000 service personnel.
That statement suggested a sizeable military commitment, but not necessarily a clear or immediate solution to the shipping crisis. For oil traders, the absence of a precise mechanism for safe passage appeared to matter more than the scale of the deployment.
As a result, the market response remained muted, with prices holding firm rather than falling in anticipation of a quick reopening.
Iran’s Warning Adds to Doubts Over Reopening
Further doubts were raised by signals from Tehran that Iran would not cooperate with the American initiative. Senior Iranian officials indicated that any attempt by the US to intervene more directly in the strait could be seen as a violation of the fragile ceasefire that has technically been in place since April 7.
Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, warned on Sunday that any American interference in the waterway would be treated as a breach of the truce. That warning reinforced fears that even limited US maritime operations could trigger another round of escalation.
With Iran clearly unwilling to endorse the plan, traders appear to believe that Project Freedom alone cannot restore confidence or normal shipping conditions.
New Maritime Incidents Deepen Market Anxiety
The atmosphere was made even more tense by fresh reports of attacks at sea. On Monday, the United Kingdom’s military said it had received information that a tanker had been struck by unknown projectiles off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. Hours earlier, a bulk carrier had reported being attacked by several small craft off Iran.
According to UK Maritime Trade Operations, no crew members were harmed in either incident. But the events added to a growing sense that the strait and nearby waters remain highly unstable.
For energy markets, these incidents matter because they reinforce the idea that shipping risks are still immediate and active. Even without major casualties or confirmed sinkings, repeated disruptions make shipowners, insurers and energy traders more cautious.
That caution is one reason prices have not dropped despite the US announcement.
Analysts Say Market Trust Is Wearing Thin
Energy analysts said traders have become less willing to assume that Trump’s statements on Iran will quickly produce results. Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial in Sydney, said the market is becoming used to Trump’s messages about progress proving premature later on.
June Goh, a senior oil analyst in Singapore, said it remained unclear how Project Freedom would actually help restore meaningful flows through Hormuz. She argued that falling global oil inventories are now weighing on sentiment more heavily than political messaging.
In her view, even if some passage begins to resume, normalising traffic through the strait will take much more than the current US proposal. She also warned that the supply gap created by the disruption could take months to repair.
Those assessments reflect a broader market belief that the problem is no longer just diplomatic. It is also physical, logistical and deeply tied to damaged infrastructure and security fears.
The Scale of the Disruption Remains Severe
Iran’s threats against shipping in the Gulf have reduced movement through the strait to a fraction of normal levels, cutting deeply into global oil and gas supply chains. Goldman Sachs estimates that the closure of the waterway, along with attacks on energy infrastructure, has removed about 14.5 million barrels a day from global production.
Brent crude has risen nearly 50 percent since the start of the war and has stayed above $100 a barrel for almost two weeks. Analysts say prices are likely to remain elevated even after any peace agreement because of the backlog of delayed cargo, damaged facilities and the continuing need to clear Iranian sea mines.
The shipping figures underline the scale of the slowdown. Only 20 vessels crossed the strait on the most recent day for which data were available, compared with a pre-war average of 129 daily transits.
Markets Still See Risk of a Longer Crisis
Some analysts believe traders are still underestimating how long the disruption could last. Kavonic said the market appears to assume the strait will begin reopening within weeks, but warned that this may be too optimistic given the continuing risk of military escalation and the complexity of restoring secure navigation.
He also noted that current oil prices remain below the peaks seen in 2022, even though the present disruption has taken more than 10 percent of global oil supply offline. In his view, that gap between the scale of the crisis and current pricing may not hold for much longer.
For now, the message from the market is clear. Trump’s plan may have signalled intent, but it did not provide enough confidence to calm traders. Until the Strait of Hormuz is genuinely safer and energy flows begin to recover in a visible way, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure.