Russia has intensified its public statements about the Ukraine war, issuing sweeping claims about territorial control that analysts say appear designed to influence both domestic opinion and ongoing diplomatic talks with the United States.
During a year-end press conference last Friday, President Vladimir Putin declared that Russian troops had captured the town of Siversk in Donetsk, as well as Vovchansk in Kharkiv—two locations positioned along Ukraine’s active front lines. He also stated that Russian forces controlled “at least half” of Lyman and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk, and the town of Hulyaipole in Zaporizhia.
Independent conflict monitors have disputed the scale of those assertions. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a research group that tracks the war using satellite imagery and verified open-source evidence, said it had not found visual confirmation supporting claims of full seizures or large territorial advances in the mentioned areas. Its analysis suggested only limited Russian presence in portions of Hulyaipole (around 7.3%) and Lyman (around 2.9%), largely through infiltration or assault operations rather than sustained control.
Even Russian military commentators—widely known as “milbloggers”—have reported advances that fall below official statements. Their estimates have placed maximum Russian control at roughly 7% in Lyman and 11% in Kostiantynivka. ISW added that no more than 5% of Kostiantynivka appears to be under Russian hold.
Over the same two-week period, the Kremlin also promoted claims of full control over Kupiansk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian military leadership has offered a very different account, stating that its troops have regained approximately 16 square kilometers around Pokrovsk and pushed Russian units back from an additional 16 square kilometers. ISW estimates currently suggest that Russia holds no more than about 7.2% of Kharkiv Oblast.
On December 18, Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov told foreign defense officials that Moscow had taken 6,300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory this year. Days earlier, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov had placed the total at 6,000 square kilometers. ISW’s own assessment indicated a lower but still notable figure: around 4,984 square kilometers encompassing 196 settlements, far below the 300 settlements cited by Russian officials.
Among competing claims, analysts noted one confirmed gain acknowledged by both sides: the eastern town of Siversk.
Peace Talks, Security Guarantees, and Long-Range Strikes
As public messaging escalated, diplomacy also accelerated. Over recent weeks, US and Ukrainian negotiators worked on a proposed peace framework, concluding three days of talks in Florida on Monday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv sensed a clear US push toward a final agreement and pledged full cooperation from Ukraine’s side.
However, the 20-point peace plan released Wednesday showed continued disagreement on territory. Russia has continued to demand that Ukraine fully relinquish Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Crimea. Kyiv has refused those terms. European officials have suggested delaying territorial decisions until after a complete ceasefire is secured.
Zelenskyy has called for a direct summit with US President Donald Trump to establish a unified stance on territorial adjustments. Despite differences, major security progress was included: the US agreed to NATO-equivalent guarantees for Ukraine, enabling collective defense if Russia attacks again. The EU has also signaled plans to move Ukraine toward full membership, which could similarly unlock defense support from the bloc.
On the ground, long-range strikes continued. Between December 18 and 24, Russia launched more than 1,200 drones and 41 missiles toward Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted most of them, but several strikes still resulted in civilian casualties.
Ukraine has also reported targeted operations on Russian military and energy assets, including fighter jets, air defense systems, oil platforms, and tankers—part of an ongoing strategy to disrupt Russia’s military logistics and export revenues.
On Friday, the European Council approved a 90-billion-euro loan package for Ukraine over the next two years. Zelenskyy welcomed the support but criticized Europe’s refusal to link the plan to frozen Russian state assets, after several EU members vetoed proposals to use them as collateral for war reparations.
Beyond negotiations, the 20-point peace plan also outlined a long-term $800-billion pledge for Ukraine’s reconstruction—showing that even as talks stall on territory, security and economic planning remain central for Kyiv heading into 2025.